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Can pakistani JF 17 with CM 400 AKG destroy indian aircraft carrier INS VIKRANT

 INS   VIKRANT


INS Vikrant, also known as Indigenous Aircraft Carrier 1 (IAC-1), is an AIRCRAFT CARRIER constructed for the indian navy by Cochin shipyard limited Recently it has started its maden sea trials and will be commissioned in the indian navy by August 2022  


The carrier has t5he capability to carry around 36 to 40 aircrafts on it out of which 26 will be fixed wing attack aircrafts and 10 will be Ka 31 for AWACS role and  MH 60 R for anti submarine role and  HAL Dhruv for replenishment roles 
The carrier is equipped with 64 x Barak 8 missiles and 4 x Otobreda 76 mm cannons and 4 AK630 close in weapon systems
And the carrier is equipped with ELTA ELM 2248 AESA 
radar which has a radar range of 450 km for a high altitude aircrafts and can guide missiles to their targets .And also the carrier is equipped with a secondary radar selex RAN 40 L which has a range of 400 km Since aircraft carriers are a costly equipments so they never travel alone and hence INS VIKRANT will sail with a whole carrier battle group which would consist of Frigates , corvettes , destroyers , submarines which would provide a extra cover to the aircraft carrier and since they operate ion a carrier battle group they can have a combine capability of 250 anti ship missiles

As if the carrier battle group of INS vikrant is kept same as that of INS Vikramaditya they it would consists of 


     Vikramaditya CBG           Vikrant CBG



2 Kolkata class destroyers     each with 32 barak 8        so total 64 SAM
  2 Shivalik class frigates             each with 32 barak 8                total  64   SAM`S  
2 Talwar class frigate                      each with 24 shitl 1                    total   32  SAM`S
2 Kamorta class anti submarine ship         each with 16 barak 8 missiles        so total 32 SAM
AND 
INS Vikrant itself with 64 Barak 8 AND THE ARIAL COMPONENT WITH 16 AIRCRAFTS ACCORDING TO THE 60 % AVALIBILITY OF 30 AIRCRAFTS WITH EACH 4 BVR MISSILES
SO TOTAL 136

so total Surface to air missile capabilities of the carrier battle group counts of 344 SAM missiles 




JF 17  AND CM 400 AKG

The JF 17 thunder is a aircraft been developed by the chinese chengdu aircraft cooperation from the rejected soviet design and being assembled and painted by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex , Kamra and the aircraft is capable to carry various ammunitions with itself leki air to air , air to ground and anti ship missiles 
the main armament which it would carry with it would be the CM 400 AKG for anti ship roles and PL 15 for the air to air roles . Pakistan have ordered for 60 x CM 400 AKG missiles for anti ship roles and will be equipped on the chinese JF 17 thunder 



Each missile has a war head of 250 kg and have a range of 250 km with a speed of 2.5 to 3 Mach and each pakistani JF 17 can be deployed with two cm400 akg anti ship missiles and since the CM 400 AKG missile is a anti ship ballistic missile


so it has to be launched from a height of minimum 36000 ft to 40000 ft and reach to that height with such heavy missiles the JF 17 would have to carry all of its three drop tanks as to take the missile to that height the JF 17 will require additional fuel because the russian RD 93 engine is not so fuel efficient and even when it is used with the normal weapons it emits black smoke which is a clear indication of incomplete combustion of fuel 

BLACK SMOKE FROM THE ENGINES OF JF17


And if the war breaks out at the time of maritime combat the JF 17 will be equipped with only 2 x CM400AKG and 2  DROP TANKS and their would be no space left for the BVR missiles as 

1 x CM400 will weight 900 kg        so 2 will weight 1800 kg
1 fully fueled drop tank of JF 17 weighs  800 kg     so 2 will weight 1600 kg   
 
total weight for 2 missiles and 2 drop tanks weight 3400 kg

and the weight carrying capacity of the JF 17 is itself 3700 kg and if it wants to assends fast in the air with greater maneuverability  it will not be able to carry any BVR missile . The missile wich the JF 17 can carry for additional safety if only PL 10 and PL 5 which weighs less than 90 kg but have the range of only 20 km each and rest of the missiles 
 PL 9 weigh 115 kg
PL 12 weigh 180 kg 
PL 15 weighs more than 210 kg but that will not be available as it cannot be equipped on jf 17 BLOCK 2 


WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE VIKRANT WOULD FACE CM400 AKG

Pakistan in 2018 placed an ordered for 60 x CM400 AKG missiles to the chinese company which manufactures this missile 
If war breaks out and if pakistan decides to destroy the indian aircraft carrier with all of its CM 400AKG missiles pakistan would have to take 30 JF 17 for the mission as the missile is only compatible on the JF 17 and no other aircraft in the pakistani inventory can use these missiles
and pakistan can also launch additional JF 17 to perform the role of BVR capability with each  JF 17 carrying one Anti ship missile each 

And from the indian side we will have 1 aircraft carrier , 2 destroyers , 4 frigates  2 anti submarine ships and 2 submarines 

We cane make around 3 cases    


CASE 1

                ALL 60 CM 400 AKG CARRIED ON 30 JF 17 against the single INS VIKRANT



All of the JF 17 which would carry the CM 400 AKG missiles would have to ascend to the height of the 36000 to 40000 ft and then launch the CM 400 MISSILES since the range of the chinese missiles is maximum 250 km The pakistani JF 17 would have to come at least 170 to 190 km closer to INS vikrant so that the missile could be able to do some maneuvers to dodge the Indian Barak 8 missiles  
But if we consider the Indian carrier alone the carrier is equipped with ELTA ELM 2248 AESA MF STAR radar which could detect the pakistani JF 17 at a range of 450 km so the carrier would have additional 5 to 10 minutes for preparing all of its 64 x  BARAK 8 missiles and will also be able to launch about 5 MIG 29k in that time period with 4 BVR missiles each which totals to 20 BVR missiles for just 5 aircrafts
But if we see the carrier upper deck thoroughly then we would find that the carrier is able to deploy 12 aircrafts on its upper deck so and since we are considering the situation of war then he aircraft carrier would launch as much as 7 to 8 fighter in the mean time when the JF 17 will be approaching the carrier 
credit : Indian defence news


 and if the carrier keeps on launching the mig and if we consider the 60% availability rate of MIG 29K then 18 aircrafts could be launched out of the total 30 MIG29k deployed on the carrier . and these 18 aircrafts combinely if carries just 4 BVR per aircraft then the total would be  72 missiles which would be sufficient for the carrier and its aircrafts to destroy the entire package of 30 JF 17 with CM 400 because they would not have air to air missile and will be just left with their cannons which can definitely not take place for a BVR missile  

                                                 CASE  2

CARRIER BATTLE GROUP OF INS VIKRANT   
                                                                  V/S                                                                                 30 xJF 17 WITH CM 400 AKG AND ADDITIONAL 30 JF 17 WITH BVR MISSILES

Pakistan

If pakistan tries to send 30 JF 17 with 60 CM 400 AKG missiles each and additional 30 JF 17 with BVR missiles then the total Package of the pakistani fighters will consist of 

60 CM 400 AKG
30 JF 17 with 4 BVR missiles each and 2 drop tanks each and for the convenience of pakistanis 1 Anti ship missiles for each aircraft which is other than the 30 JF 17 which would carry 60 CM400 AKG

total pakistani package would contain 210 missiles 

India

 The indian carrier battle group would contain 

1.     Ins Vikrant                                                                                                 64 x Barak 8
       16 aircrafts out of the total of 30 each with 4 BVR missiles with 72 BVR missiles total
                                                                                                                      total missiles  136

2.    2 x Kolkata class destroyers                                                         32 Barak 8 each so       
                                                                                                                total  64 barak 8

3.    2 x Shivalik class frigate                                                              32 Barak 8 each so                                                                                                                       total  64 barak 8

4.    2x  Talwar class frigate                                                                   24 shtil 1   each
                                                                                                           so total 48 missiles

5.    2 x  Kamorta class anti sub ship                                                     16 Barak 8 each
                                                                                                              so total 32 missiles
so the total surface to air component of the indian carrier group would contain 344 missiles


and now its the simple questions of mathematics that since the pakistani side have a total of 210 missiles out of which 90 [60CM 400 AKG + 30 different type on other ] are anti ship and the rest are the BVR missiles and the indian carrier battle group have a missile capability of 344 missiles then the winner would be the indian carrier battle group

Because a normal carrier battle group does not move very closely they move in such a parameter that they could remain miles away from each other but at the same they remain that much close that they they can protected by each other  from any incoming missile 

So the Pakistani aircrafts would have to first face the ships of the Carrier battle group and then only they are able to reach the aircraft carrier and since the ships of the CBG moves miles ahead of the carrier the carrier can have more time to prepare and could launch extra aircrafts based on the early intelligence of the ships which are moving ahead of the carrier
So in this scenario also the indian carrier battle group wins But since at that time the chaos would be much higher then their is a chance that 5 to 6 missiles could pass the shield of barak 8 And after then the missile would have to face the AK 630 CIWS but if the missile is capable of passing both the defence then their is a chance that one or two missiles will be able to hit the carrier but that damage would be minimal because the missile can carry a payload of 200 kg  which is not able to destroy the aircraft carrier which have the displacement of  45,000 ton . Yes their will be damages but the damages will be minimal and could be easily be repairable 

But pakistan cannot waste 60 fighter on a single aircraft carrier because they have a very small air force which contains aging chinese F7 and the aging as well as western  MIRAGE 3 , MIRAGE 5 ,  F 16 which the pakistanis have got does not have any spares camming from US and FRANCE because of the unnecessary diplomatic stunts of pakistan against US and France  the only plane which pakistan have is the JF 17 which is 130 in numbers in the pakistan air force which would be insufficient to face the mighty indian air force in the punjab , sindh and kashmir sectors and if they decide to do so then 45 to 47 % of the pakistani fleet of JF 17 will be down and since the JF 17 itself  has a availability rate of 50 % it would be practically impossible for the pakistan air force  to sent 60 JF 17 to fight a CBG of India as well as the indian air force on the borders

 And more over if we consider the S400 which will be delivered to the indian air force in 2021 DECEMBER this year and various other radars of the Indian air force especially over the Horizon radars of the indian air force it would make the pakistan air force unable to even take off from their the bases because the geographical width of pakistan is around 400 km and the detecting range of the S400  will be 600 KM and kill range of 400 km so there is no known bases in pakistan which are unable to be undetected by the indian radars 
(S400 radar coverage of pakistani airforce bases)

And more over the S400 Can direct the indian air force planes towards the pakistan planes and can also itself destroy maximum pakistani planes  during war like situation and also By the other modes of communications the pakistani bases will be destroyed by the brahmos missiles both deployed on both land as well as on the ships of the Carrier battle group which would be facing pakistan



                                                                         CONCLUSION 

Pakistani air force can not destroy the indian carrier as they have just 60 CM 400 akg MISSILES and 
when they will move towards the carrier they would have to first face the S00 on ground and since it is war then the indian air force western command will also be included in the protection of the Carrier Battle Group 

After clearing the parameter of the S400 and the indian air force if any how they reach the CBG they would have to first face the support ships which wil;l have frigates , corvettes , destroyers , Anti submarine ships which are themselves equipped with 208 SAM missiles 

and after crossing the CBG they will reach the carrier with its  SAM , CIWS and its fighters 

In short words the pakistani CM 400 AKG can not destroy INDIAN CARRIER at SEA

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