HISTORY OF INDIA PAKISTAN TENSIONS
It all begins before 1947 when India was suffering from a bloody civil war between the radical Islamist who wanted a new nation and the Hindus and Muslims of India who did`t wanted the county to be divided
but in the month of August 1947 India became Independent of the British rule and Pakistan was born . Ever since then India and Pakistan became rivals as it all started with a bloody civil war and when the Pakistani army lead Kabaili attacked the free country of Kashmir from the area of Waziristan and tried to annex it .
The king of Kashmir went to India and asked for help and after his succession of Kashmir to the Union of India the then home minister of India ordered the indian air force to airlift troops and equipment to Srinagar under the command of Lt Col Dewan Rnjit Rai
where they reinforced the state forces and started pushing the Pakistani forces back but the Indian prime minister did`t liked that and in order to make his image as a peace lover he raised the issue in the united nations
and the UN adopted the resolution on 5 January 1949 and according to this Pakistan had to withdraw all of its forces and the entire area of Kashmir should be succeeded to the Indian Union and India was allowed to deploy minimal forces over the area of Kashmir
. But the Pakistani side did not complied to these orders from the UN and where ever the forces where their in the War zone it was declared as the cease fire and later it was declared as the Line of Control (LoC)
It did not stopped their and INDIA and PAKISTAN went on for direct war in 1965 , 1971(bangladesh liberation war) , 1983 (Siachin expedition) and in 1999(Kargil ) wars
and also in the 90`s after the Afghan jihad the Pakistani moved all its Jihadis and mujahids in the Indian controlled Kashmir from the pakistan occupied kashmir (PoK)
How does India and Pakistan developed nukes
Indian nuclear program was initially started to full fill the growing energy demands of a huge country like India . The initiative was taken in 1948 by DR Homi Bhabha and the atomic energy commission was established in 1948 and in 1954 DEPARTMENT OF ATOMIC ENERGY was established
In 1964 China detonated its first atomic bomb and since India had went on a war with the chinese in 1962 and in 1971 India was in a war with Pakistan they where a ally of the United States the US would have had almost done a nuclear strike on India if the Soviet Union had not been their in the support of India
American nucler carries in Indian ocean during 1971 War )
All these circumstances forced India to convert its peaceful Nuclear program into a Weaponized nuclear program and within the record time of 25 months on 18 may 1974 India conducted its nuclear weapon test in Pokhran Rajsathan
and later in 1998 India conducted 5 nuclear bombs out of which 4 where atom bombs and 1 was a hydrogen bomb
(
indian nuclear bombs during 1998 test in pokhran)
And as always Pakistanis thought that they are in a state of cold war with India and they also need to test the nuclear weapons so they also detonated and 15 days later the Pakistanis tested 6 nuclear bombs under the project code name chagai 2
(
pakistani nuclear test)
Types of Nuclear Weapons
A nuclear weapon is a weapon of mass destruction which has the capability to destroy a area as big as a city and sometimes a state like France in a go
Nuclear weapons are of two types
1. fission bomb - also called Atomic bomb
2. Fusion bomb - also called as Hydrogen bomb (A hydrogen bomb is 100 times dangerous or powerful than a atomic bomb)
What If India And Pakistan Go On a War and how likely is a chance to convert into a nuclear war ?
Since India and Pakistan have had 4 wars , Kashmir and Punjab insurgency , surgical and air strikes in the past
It would be inappropriate to say that India and Pakistan will never go on a war against each other in the future or in other words war between India and Pakistan is inevitable as Pakistan is desperate about Indian rise as a global economic and military power
and Pakistan knows that it can never win a war against India due to India`s military , industrial and economic might compared to Pakistan so it will surely take the path of terrorist insurgency as it is the only through which the Pakistanis can do something against India as it is the cheapest way to provide harm to your enemy if we consider the shrinking economy of Pakistan
So if some day Pakistan decides to execute a terrorist attack like the 26/11 Mumbai attacks on the Indian soil then their is a high chance of it to be considered as a act of war against India , and Pakistan knows it by the bitter memories of 1971 that if India considered it as a war then their will be a full scale war against Pakistan and in that case the Pakistanis will be left with no choice but to fight against a mighty Indian force or surrender like the 1971 war
And the instability and panic that we saw in the Pakistani establishment during the surgical strikes in 2016 and the air strikes in 2019 can lead to a first and last nuke strike on India
Since India follows a no first use policy India will never do a nuclear strike first on a nuclear country but if attacked first then India will use it`s nuclear force to destroy that entire country
HOW INDIA AND PAKISTAN WILL DEFEND THEMSELVES DURING A NUCLEAR WAR
If India and Pakistan went on a nuclear war then their will be certainly less damage to India as compared to Pakistan and the reasons are as follows
1. GEOGRAPHY AND SIZE
India is a huge country as it is the seventh biggest country in the world so eve if Pakistan uses all of its nuclear weapons (which it will not be able to) the also Pakistan does not have the capability to destroy every part of India during a nuclear war
But on the other hand Pakistan is long if consider the vertically but when we consider it as horizontally it is a highly narrow country with very minimum depth SO with less than half of its nuclear arsenal only India will be able to destroy entire Pakistan
2. POPULATION CONCENTRATION
India is a highly populated country and the population in India as almost equally divided all around its territory so even if Pakistan uses its nukes indian cities it will not be able to destroy the entire population of India
But on the other hand around 70% of Pakistan population of Pakistan is concentrated in Punjab . So if india decides to drop her nukes on pakistani cities rather than that on the pakistani nuclear depo or installations which india will never then it will be easy target for india in case of a nucler war and india will be able to do it with minimum numbers of nuclear bombs
3. NUMBER OF ACTIVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS
there are two types of states in which a nuclear weapon can be stored
1. active 2. reserve
Since nuclear weapons are not used often so all the nuclear warheads of a nuclear country are not kept fully assembled all the time because they require a controlled environment otherwise if their is a slight change in the environment there can be a nuclear explosion in country itself in order to prevent such hazards nuclear countries develop special environment storage's where the active nukes are stored
and such active nukes are the nukes that can be used at a short notice and the rest of the bombs are kept in the shelf unassembled which means that they can be assembled in the hour of need when the active nukes are over then these reserve nukes are taken out and assembled and are prepared to use in war
According to SIPRI (Stockholm international peace research institute ) Pakistan possess 165 nukes which is 9 more than 156 nukes of India but when it comes to active nuclear weapons India have around 42 nuclear weapons and Pakistan have just 18 active nuclear weapons
so if Pakistan decides to nuke India they will not be able to fire all of their active nukes at a same time on India because they would have to take out their reserve nukes and to make those nukes ready Pakistan will take minimum to minimum three days until the India would have had nuked their nuclear installations already and in that case the Pakistanis will have had lost their maximum nukes in the Indian nuclear strikes ass the servallnce capabilituies of india is far ahead of pakistan because india have around 15 dedicated military servallance sattelites and ballestic missile servalance equipment
(INS DHRUV ballestic missile detection ship)
4. Second strike capability
nuclear triad is the most importat capabiity which a nuckear country should posss
Naval missiles are the most important feature of the nuclear triad as if hypothetically the entire nukes of the land and air launched air missiles are destroyed then the missiles which are deployed on the Nuclear submarines can be launched because the nuclear ballestic missile submarine i.e SSBN can stay down the surface of the oceans for months which can reach at the shores of the enemy undetected and can launch its nuclear ballestic missiles on the enemy and it takes much less time then the land based nuclear missiles and the SSBN`S does not have the concept of active or reserve nukes all the nukes carried in the nuclear SSBN are active and are ready to launch at any given point of time
India does have that capability and is also increasing this capability by constructing more nuclear capable ballestic missile submarines
but on the other hand Pakistan does not have this capability as nuclear submarines cost billions and Pakistan is not in a position to even maintain these kind of submarines
and this nuclear triad will ensure that the final nuclear strike will be done by India only
5. BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD
Ballistic missile defense shield is the missile defense systems developed by countries to prevent any nuclear attack on themselves these kind of missiles are used to destroy the incoming enemies missile in the upper atmosphere itself
India possesses the BMD technology and India have also tested it several times
Phase 1 has been successfully tested and completed and deployment awaits final official permission. Phase 2 is under development it is a double-tiered system consisting of two land and sea-based interceptor missiles, namely the Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) missile for high altitude interception, and the Advanced Air Defense (AAD) Missile for lower altitude interception. The two-tiered shield should be able to intercept any incoming missile launched from 5,000 kilometres away and Pakistan does only have a depth or the width of 400 km which means that India is able to destroy any incoming nuclear missile from Pakistan The system also includes an overlapping network of early warning and tracking radars, as well as command and control posts.
The PAD was tested in November 2006, followed by the AAD in December 2007. With the test of the PAD missile, India became the fourth country to have successfully developed an anti-ballistic missile system, after US, RUSSIA and ISRAEL .
But Pakistan does not have such capabilities to destroy the incoming India nuclear missiles so in a case of nuclear war India will be able to prevent Pakistani nuclear strikes but Pakistan will not be able to counter Indian nuclear strikes
in this case Pakistan can only provide harm to India if Pakistan tries to throw all of its 165 nukes at India at once then out of the total 95% of the missiles will be destroyed in the air and the rest will fall on the Indian soil as no technology can be 100% accurate
CONCLUSION
If India and Pakistan decides to go on a nuclear war against each other then definitely the destruction will be on both the sides but when we compare the Indian capabilities to the Pakistani capabilities which include delivery systems and the technology of the delivery systems India will suffer minimal losses if compared to Pakistan and their is a high chance that either Pakistan will be completely destroyed or it will be occupied by India
Comments